World death and birth rate

Source UN (World Population Prospects 2019)
Date04 Oct 2021

Two metrics determine the change in the world population: the number of babies born and people dying.

60.12 million people will die in 2021 around the world. That is 164,711 each day, 6863 each hour, 114.38 each minute, and 1.91 each second. The lowest total deaths per year were 46 mn in 1977, and the highest total deaths of 121.7 mn will be in 2099.

140 million people will be born in 2021 around the world. That is 383,071 each day, 6885 each hour, 266 each minute, and 4.43 each second. In 1950, total births per year were the lowest at 97.38 mn. The yearly number of births will remain at around 140 million per year over the coming decades and will expect to peak in 2044 with 140.58 mn births. It is then expected to decline in the second half of the century slowly.

In the future, the number of births is expected to fall and the number of deaths to rise; hence the global population will grow at a slow rate. In 2099, total deaths will be 121.7 mn, and total births will be 125.26 mn, which is 3.56 mn more births than deaths.

In 2021, the crude death rate for the world is 7.64 deaths per thousand population, and the crude birth rate for the world is 17.76 births per thousand. The crude death rate and birth rate of the world have been declining at a moderating rate since 1950. While the crude birth rate continues to decline, but the death rate has been increasing since 2017. Therefore, in 2099, the crude death rate (11.20) will be slightly lower than the crude birth rate (11.52).

  • Total
  • Crude

World death rate estimates

Year Total death Crude death(per 1000)
per yearper day
195051,344,793140,67119.99
195151,137,291140,10219.75
195250,778,719139,12019.29
195350,533,090138,44718.88
195450,400,358138,08318.50
195550,377,233138,02018.16
195650,452,237138,22517.85
195750,610,029138,65817.58
195850,820,915139,23517.33
195951,032,741139,81617.08
196051,186,550140,23716.81
196151,223,264140,33816.52
196251,089,292139,97116.17
196350,758,026139,06315.77
196450,240,363137,64515.32
196549,585,336135,85014.83
196648,870,513133,89214.32
196748,187,690132,02113.84
196847,608,042130,43313.39
196947,162,218129,21212.99
197046,852,299128,36212.64
197146,650,596127,81012.34
197246,501,726127,40212.06
197346,364,735127,02711.80
197446,231,827126,66311.55
197546,108,074126,32311.30
197646,009,796126,05411.07
197745,960,393125,91910.86
197845,975,911125,96110.67
197946,058,370126,18710.50
198046,204,190126,58710.35
198146,404,009127,13410.21
198246,642,424127,78710.08
198346,906,250128,5109.96
198447,189,045129,2859.84
198547,490,005130,1109.73
198647,813,033130,9959.62
198748,162,618131,9529.53
198848,538,975132,9839.44
198948,936,552134,0739.35
199049,347,791135,1999.27
199149,764,300136,3419.20
199250,177,722137,4739.13
199350,580,510138,5779.07
199450,967,116139,6369.00
199551,335,925140,6468.94
199651,689,048141,6148.87
199752,030,524142,5498.81
199852,361,735143,4578.75
199952,679,836144,3288.69
200052,978,353145,1468.62
200153,249,602145,8898.55
200253,489,264146,5468.48
200353,696,120147,1138.41
200453,871,987147,5948.33
200554,016,094147,9898.25
200654,128,359148,2978.17
200754,218,245148,5438.08
200854,299,904148,7678.00
200954,388,442149,0097.91
201054,498,936149,3127.83
201154,644,548149,7117.76
201254,836,846150,2387.70
201355,088,432150,9277.64
201455,412,196151,8147.60
201555,822,989152,9407.57
201656,331,837154,3347.55
201756,935,173155,9877.54
201857,625,149157,8777.55
201958,394,378159,9857.57
202059,230,795162,2767.60

World death rate projections

Year Total death Crude death(per 1000)
per yearper day
202160,119,439164,7117.64
202261,044,146167,2447.68
202361,990,868169,8387.72
202462,950,506172,4677.77
202563,917,848175,1177.81
202664,893,281177,7907.86
202765,884,945180,5077.91
202866,899,726183,2877.96
202967,939,313186,1358.02
203069,007,500189,0628.07
203170,108,226192,0778.14
203271,241,874195,1838.20
203372,406,527198,3748.27
203473,598,771201,6408.35
203574,814,931204,9728.42
203676,050,792208,3588.50
203777,299,700211,7808.58
203878,554,222215,2178.66
203979,807,641218,6518.74
204081,054,370222,0678.81
204182,290,945225,4558.89
204283,516,487228,8128.97
204384,729,434232,1359.04
204485,926,657235,4159.12
204587,106,206238,6479.19
204688,267,561241,8299.26
204789,411,634244,9639.33
204890,538,631248,0519.40
204991,647,388251,0899.46
205092,736,831254,0749.53
205193,806,162257,0039.59
205294,854,855259,8769.65
205395,882,369262,6919.71
205496,888,008265,4479.77
205597,871,066268,1409.83
205698,831,144270,7709.89
205799,768,516273,3389.94
2058100,683,538275,8459.99
2059101,576,441278,29210.04
2060102,447,142280,67710.10
2061103,295,543283,00110.14
2062104,122,213285,26610.19
2063104,928,170287,47410.23
2064105,714,606289,62910.28
2065106,483,365291,73510.32
2066107,236,389293,79810.37
2067107,974,639295,82110.41
2068108,698,516297,80410.45
2069109,407,895299,74810.49
2070110,102,639301,65110.53
2071110,782,117303,51310.57
2072111,444,312305,32710.61
2073112,086,822307,08710.64
2074112,707,569308,78810.68
2075113,304,469310,42310.71
2076113,875,885311,98910.75
2077114,420,877313,48210.78
2078114,938,442314,90010.81
2079115,427,436316,24010.83
2080115,885,594317,49510.86
2081116,310,805318,66010.88
2082116,703,928319,73710.90
2083117,067,327320,73210.92
2084117,404,000321,65510.94
2085117,716,528322,51110.95
2086118,007,412323,30810.96
2087118,281,140324,05810.98
2088118,543,273324,77610.99
2089118,799,505325,47811.00
2090119,054,925326,17811.02
2091119,313,480326,88611.03
2092119,577,975327,61111.04
2093119,850,429328,35711.06
2094120,132,097329,12911.08
2095120,423,869329,92811.10
2096120,726,372330,75711.12
2097121,039,640331,61511.14
2098121,363,710332,50311.17
2099121,698,537333,42111.20

World birth rate estimates

Year Total birth Crude birth(per 1000)
per yearper day
195097,375,317266,78237.91
195197,429,766266,93137.63
195297,655,000267,54837.11
195398,112,829268,80236.66
195498,803,235270,69436.27
195599,725,288273,22035.97
1956100,874,502276,36835.72
1957102,239,146280,10735.55
1958103,799,696284,38335.43
1959105,525,371289,11135.35
1960107,374,821294,17835.30
1961109,298,087299,44735.27
1962111,234,454304,75235.21
1963113,119,839309,91735.13
1964114,895,919314,78334.99
1965116,511,221319,20934.80
1966117,933,923323,10734.53
1967119,167,280326,48634.19
1968120,214,393329,35533.81
1969121,065,655331,68733.37
1970121,681,474333,37432.87
1971122,020,800334,30432.32
1972122,109,507334,54731.72
1973122,012,235334,28031.09
1974121,812,402333,73330.46
1975121,634,843333,24629.85
1976121,615,449333,19329.29
1977121,856,427333,85328.81
1978122,430,299335,42528.42
1979123,373,745338,01028.13
1980124,740,190341,75427.93
1981126,554,313346,72427.83
1982128,703,855352,61327.79
1983131,029,236358,98427.79
1984133,376,961365,41627.79
1985135,507,655371,25427.74
1986137,170,100375,80827.59
1987138,230,999378,71527.34
1988138,634,320379,82026.96
1989138,390,313379,15226.47
1990137,597,902376,98125.89
1991136,436,000373,79725.26
1992135,161,797370,30624.63
1993133,995,938367,11224.03
1994133,057,321364,54123.50
1995132,414,320362,77923.04
1996132,065,189361,82222.66
1997131,916,649361,41522.33
1998131,894,787361,35622.03
1999131,991,414361,62021.76
2000132,214,160362,23121.51
2001132,577,968363,22721.30
2002133,082,317364,60921.11
2003133,710,591366,33020.94
2004134,433,017368,31020.79
2005135,211,570370,44320.65
2006136,006,145372,62020.52
2007136,778,920374,73720.38
2008137,495,393376,70020.24
2009138,128,933378,43520.09
2010138,663,627379,90019.93
2011139,098,870381,09319.75
2012139,454,437382,06719.57
2013139,746,195382,86619.38
2014139,975,840383,49519.18
2015140,139,133383,94318.99
2016140,229,681384,19118.79
2017140,248,778384,24318.58
2018140,204,090384,12118.38
2019140,108,052383,85818.17
2020139,975,303383,49417.96

World birth rate projections

Year Total birth Crude birth(per 1000)
per yearper day
2021139,821,086383,07117.76
2022139,661,301382,63417.56
2023139,511,732382,22417.37
2024139,385,724381,87917.19
2025139,294,399381,62817.02
2026139,243,217381,48816.86
2027139,227,034381,44416.71
2028139,240,419381,48116.57
2029139,281,991381,59416.43
2030139,349,349381,77916.30
2031139,438,923382,02416.18
2032139,544,564382,31416.07
2033139,659,949382,63015.95
2034139,780,175382,95915.85
2035139,902,918383,29615.74
2036140,028,082383,63915.64
2037140,155,455383,98815.55
2038140,282,599384,33615.46
2039140,404,444384,67015.37
2040140,515,206384,97315.28
2041140,609,445385,23115.19
2042140,683,336385,43415.11
2043140,733,518385,57115.02
2044140,757,140385,63614.93
2045140,752,604385,62414.85
2046140,720,271385,53514.76
2047140,663,297385,37914.68
2048140,584,612385,16314.59
2049140,485,293384,89114.51
2050140,365,011384,56214.42
2051140,222,715384,17214.34
2052140,058,881383,72314.26
2053139,875,558383,22114.17
2054139,675,991382,67414.09
2055139,464,483382,09414.01
2056139,245,403381,49413.93
2057139,022,290380,88313.85
2058138,798,013380,26913.78
2059138,574,629379,65713.70
2060138,352,476379,04813.63
2061138,130,246378,43913.56
2062137,905,112377,82213.49
2063137,675,121377,19213.43
2064137,440,255376,54913.36
2065137,201,329375,89413.30
2066136,959,816375,23213.24
2067136,717,085374,56713.18
2068136,473,880373,90113.12
2069136,230,053373,23313.06
2070135,985,736372,56413.00
2071135,740,822371,89312.95
2072135,493,688371,21612.89
2073135,242,021370,52612.84
2074134,983,537369,81812.79
2075134,715,303369,08312.74
2076134,434,476368,31412.69
2077134,139,470367,50512.63
2078133,829,268366,65612.58
2079133,503,312365,76212.53
2080133,161,660364,82612.48
2081132,805,328363,85012.42
2082132,436,676362,84012.37
2083132,057,979361,80312.32
2084131,670,594360,74112.27
2085131,275,190359,65812.21
2086130,871,823358,55312.16
2087130,460,540357,42612.11
2088130,041,930356,27912.05
2089129,617,316355,11612.00
2090129,188,093353,94011.95
2091128,755,557352,75511.90
2092128,320,762351,56411.85
2093127,884,550350,36911.80
2094127,447,566349,17111.75
2095127,010,221347,97311.71
2096126,572,755346,77511.66
2097126,135,247345,57611.61
2098125,697,737344,37711.57
2099125,260,199343,17911.52